고용보고서, Employment Situation Report

 

l        발표처: Bureau of Labor and Statistics (노동부 산하 통계청)

l        발표일: 매월 첫번째 금요일 오전 8:30 동부시각기준

l        인터넷주소: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm.

 

 

고용보고서는 9개의 하부 사항을 포함해서 경제에 관한 가장 포괄적인 전망을 제시해준다. 중요한 3 하위 목록은 다음과 같다. 1) 임금 고용(Payroll Employment) : 해당 월의 노동자 수의 변화를 측정한다. 노동시장의 현실적인 전망을 하기 위해서 수치와 함께 이동평균(6개월 또는 9개월) 비교하는 것은 중요하다. 종종 중요하게 여겨지는 전월수치를 자주 개정해주는 것도 중요한 일이다. 2) 실업률(Unemployment Rate) : 적극적으로 일자리를 구하고자 하나 현재 취업하지 못한 노동력의 비율. 실업률은 수치의 단순성과 정치적 함의 때문에 매우 중요하게 여겨지는 통계이지만, 후행적 지표이기 때문에 시장에서의 상대적 중요성은 점차 줄어들고 있다. 지표는 경기전환점에 후행한다. 3) 시간당 평균 수입 성장(Average Hourly Earnings Growth): 달과 다른 달의 평균 시간당 수익을 비교한 성장률은 임금 증가를 설명해 주기 때문에 임금압력 인플레이션의 가능성을 알려준다. 연간 성장률은 장기 추세를 포착하는데 있어 또한 중요하다.

 

The employment report is actually two separate reports which are the results of two separate surveys. The household survey is a survey of roughly 60,000 households. This survey produces the unemployment rate. The establishment survey is a survey of 375,000 businesses. This survey produces the nonfarm payrolls, average workweek, and average hourly earnings figures, to name a few. Both surveys cover the payroll period which includes the 12th of each month.

The reports both measure employment levels, just from different angles. Due to the vastly different size of the survey samples (the establishment survey not only surveys more businesses, but each business employs many individuals), the measures of employment may differ markedly from month to month. The household survey is used only for the unemployment measure - the market focusses primarily on the more comprehensive establishment survey. Together, these two surveys make up the employment report, the most timely and broad indicator of economic activity released each month.

Total payrolls are broken down into sectors such as manufacturing, mining, construction, services, and government. The markets follows these components closely as indicators of the trends in sectors of the economy; the manufacturing sector is watched the most closely as it often leads the business cycle. The data also include breakdowns of hours worked, overtime, and average hourly earnings.

The average workweek (also known as hours worked) is important for two reasons. First, it is a critical determinant of such monthly indicators as industrial production and personal income. Second, it is considered a useful indicator of labor market conditions: a rising workweek early in the business cycle may be the first indication that employers are preparing to boost their payrolls, while late in the cycle a rising workweek may indicate that employers are having difficulty finding qualified applicants for open positions. Average earnings are closely followed as an indicator of potential inflation. Like the price of any good or service, the price of labor reacts to an overly accommodative monetary policy. If the price of labor is rising sharply, it may be an indication that too much money is chasing too few goods, or in this case employees.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
 한국시각      지표             기간           전망치     직전수치
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
오후10:30 비농업부문고용동향 Jan            -525            -524k
          제조업부문고용동향 Jan            -139            -149k
          실업률             Jan             7.5             7.2%
오후11:40 ECRI인플레이션지수 Jan             NA              85.5
오전00:30 ECRI주간지수       w/e 01/30       NA             107.3
오전05:00 소비자신뢰지수     Dec            -3.00           -7.94%

저작권자 © 이투뉴스 무단전재 및 재배포 금지